Notes on Arab Failure
Wein el Arab?
“Where are the Arabs?”
A refrain one hears over and over again by Palestinians since their first Nakbah (Disaster) in 1948
1. “Egyptian security forces in Alexandria have detained more than 250 fans of Al Ahly Football Club at Borg El Arab Stadium for raising the Palestinian flag and chanting in solidarity with Gaza, according to a local rights group.The crackdown is the latest in a series of measures against pro-Palestine activism in Egypt since October, with more than 120 people detained for protesting against Israel's war on Gaza, including students and two children.”(Middle East Eye, June 18, 2024)
For many months, I have been trying to understand why, except for the Houthis in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, in addition to a few non-governmental organizations, the Arab governments have, so far, failed to use whatever power they have to stop the joint Israeli/American genocide against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, I want to understand why these governments are cracking down so harshly on any show of pro-Palestinian solidarity, in much the same way that the US, Germany and other Western governments have been doing.
The Arab World has a rich historical and cultural tradition. People speak the same language albeit with different dialects. There is cultural and ethnic as well as religious diversity. The region is really a mosaic rather than a coherent unit or a monolith. The governments are autocratic and rely on fear and repression to govern. They rest on a narrow social base and lack legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most people identify themselves as Arabs although they would often also identify with the country they belong to: Jordanian, Saudi, Iraqi etc… first but Arab second.
2. For a brief moment in contemporary history, the charismatic Egyptian leader Jamal Abdul Nasser (who led a group of army officers that overthrew King Farouk in 1953) promoted a progressive Arab nationalist ethos, resulting from the anticolonial struggle in the contemporary history of the region. I recall very well how this resonated with millions throughout the region. I also remember that as teenagers, we would stay up late to listen to his speeches which often went on for several hours.
3. But the nationalist euphoria was dealt a severe blow when the Israelis launched the war of June 1967, defeated three Arab armies and occupied the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and the West Bank. This pleased the Saudis and other Gulf Arabs because it dealt a death blow to a nationalist movement they have been fighting against for some time, something they, and their American patrons, saw as a major existential threat to their interests. However, such deeply held collective memories never disappear completely. They become submerged and may erupt at any moment.
4. To promote its interests in the region, the U.S. relies on Israeli military force and Saudi money to fight against attempts to promote unity and to establish equity and social justice. A number of governments welcomed American protection and money and were willing to cooperate. Those that were recalcitrant (Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen) were ultimately destroyed. The Americans succeeded unfortunately in turning existing differences into deadly instruments of control: Suddenly we begin to hear about problems between Sunnis and Shiites, something we never heard about before. All of a sudden, we are told that Iran poses more of a threat to the region than Israel. The list goes on.
Despite persistent and often successful attempts to divide and rule, there is, nonetheless, immense popular support for the Palestinian cause in the entire region. This is magnified and reinforced by the massive increase in public sympathy for the Palestinians throughout the world, now at its highest level, mainly as a response to Israel’s continuing genocide in the Gaza Strip and its deadly apartheid practices in the West Bank. The noted Palestinian film-maker, Elia Suleiman, brilliantly captured this moment by saying in an interview a few years ago: “Palestine has truly become a global metaphor.” Now, millions of people throughout the world proudly proclaim: “We are all Palestinians.”
For many years, Israel conducted its business of occupation, land confiscation, building illegal settlements and subjugation of the Palestinians away from public scrutiny. The Western media provided cover by filtering out anything critical of Israel. And the US government would veto any resolution that is even remotely critical of Israel in the UN Security Council. These same governments continued to claim that that they advocate for democracy and human rights while looking away when Israel practiced an ugly apartheid system in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Israel’s genocide, with full American support, is unfurling before our eyes, in broad daylight, and on a daily basis. World public opinion is justifiably outraged and Israel is rapidly becoming a pariah state. Its politicians are accused of committing genocide by the International Court of Justice and condemned for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. In fact, the State of Israel, along with the US are widely seen in the Arab region and throughout the world as the most important threat to regional and even international security.
5. The discovery of oil and the resulting flow of petrodollars in some countries in the region has been both a blessing and a curse. It created lucrative work opportunities for people from the poor countries (my father worked in these oil countries for most of his life). However, money retarded the process of natural evolution and development and even disfigured it in some cases.
The issue of petrodollars needs to be studied in depth and a number of important questions need to be addressed: how were these petrodollars spent, why and to what effect? Why did these governments fail to invest in the poorer Arab countries and try to narrow the gap between rich and poor? It is well known that reducing the gap between rich and poor would normally promote more regional stability by reducing political tensions. Why did the Arab governments fail to promote a common market among the various Arab countries? Why did they continue to invest in the US and other Western countries? What role did the US empire play in shaping the development of these oil-rich countries?
6. At the end of the first World War, Britain and France controlled most of the region and divided it into spheres of influence. They created the State of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians; divided Syria into artificial small entities (what kind of perverse logic would create something like Lebanon?); installed the Hashemite sons of the Sherif of Mecca in Transjordan, then Syria and later Iraq to reward him for helping T.E.Lawrence carry out the revolt against the Ottomans. In fact, many of the problems that have beset the region and continue to this day can be attributed to misguided decisions by these colonial powers.
7. As a result of the disastrous war launched by England, France and Israel against Egypt in 1956, known as the Suez War, American influence begins to grow. In the aftermath of another disastrous war launched by Israel in June 1967, America emerges as the hegemonic power in the region, often using Israel as its surgical instrument.
8. America’s hegemonic role in the region (Pax Americana) can be characterized as follows: a) total commitment to support Israel, militarily, economically and politically; b) total control of oil in the region while making sure that oil can never be used as a weapon, as it was once used during the 1973 war; c) the neutralization of countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen that refuse to be in American orbit; d) discredit and reverse the few accomplishments of the awakening known as the “Arab Spring”; heightening the dependency of the various Arab countries on the U.S.; making sure that any surplus oil money is invested in the US.; making sure that the oil-rich countries purchase huge amounts of useless weapons to help the American trade deficit; fabricating and exaggerating differences between Sunnis and Shiites to convince the Gulf Arabs that Iran is more of a threat to them than Israel.
9. In the era of Pax Americana in the Arab region, a number of disasters occur:
a. Israel invades Lebanon, with an American green light, given by then Secretary of State Alexander Haig, allegedly to drive the PLO out. It occupies the entire South and lays siege to the city of Beirut. In the Summer of 1982, Israeli bombing of West Beirut is constant and indiscriminate.
b. The US government sends Philip Habib, an American ambassador of Lebanese descent to negotiate some kind of deal. In those days, a number of us, including Professors Edward Said, Ibrahim Abu Lughod, Naseer Aruri, Samih Farsoun and a few others gathered in Washington, D.C. to try to do something to help. At one point, the phone rings in the office of the Palestine Congress where we are gathered. I am close enough and answer the phone. Yasser Arafat is on the line. He knew that we were meeting and he wanted our advice about an important issue: he said that Philip Habib had negotiated a deal whereby the PLO fighters would be permitted to leave Beirut and the Palestinian refugee camps would be protected. His question to us was: can the Americans be trusted to honor their commitment?
Following an intense discussion, probably the best I’ve ever witnessed in my entire academic and political career, I was asked to communicate the following to Yasser Arafat: the American government would normally honor its commitment to those it considers its friends or allies but not to those it considers its enemies. You and the PLO fall in the latter category. Historically, the American Government signed over a hundred treaties with Native American nations and violated every one of them.
The PLO had few viable choices and ultimately chose to leave, to fight another day. The Israeli army entered West Beirut and controlled the refugee camps (Sabra and Chatilla). They allowed the Lebanese Forces, mostly right-wing Christian militia with iron crosses dangling from their necks, to go in and, for nearly 43 hours, massacre defenseless old men, women and children. Amnon Kapeliouk, an Israeli friend and Le Monde Diplomatique correspondent, was one of the first to enter the camps after the massacres. He reported in his book Enquete sur un Massacre, that nearly 3850 were killed and unknown numbers were buried in mass graves.
c. I dwell on these points for a very important reason: Israel invades an Arab country in the Summer of 1982; it eventually lays siege to its capital, helps commit horrible massacres and the Arab governments watch and do nothing. This sends a clear and unambiguous signal: some populations, especially the Palestinians are expendable. They are mostly powerless and viewed as an irritating nuisance, because they keep insisting on their rights and refuse to go away.
d. Since then, Israel, with American political cover, has behaved with total impunity as a regional bully: attacking Gaza on several occasions; establishing a near total blockade of the entire Strip; turning it into a virtual open-air prison; launching attacks against Lebanon; intensifying its apartheid practices in the occupied West Bank. And still, the Arabs do nothing.
We reach October 2023 and Hamas, elected in an open and fair election in 2005, launches a daring and carefully planned operation. We now find out that the Israelis knew about the plan but dismissed it for pretty much the same reasons they had dismissed the intelligence about the impending attack by Egypt and Syria in October 1973.
e. Racist hubris: No one dares attack us and if they do, we will level them to the ground. In a similar way, years earlier, the Americans dismissed intelligence about an impending Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor. How could a two-bit country like Japan dare attack us? Ironically, the Israelis demonize people like the Palestinians and the Arabs, and consider them less than human. Then they come to believe their own propaganda. And they are always surprised that the Palestinians continue to resist. The Israeli policy of deterrence usually fails because it is ultimately based on faulty premises.
10. Public opinion in the various Arab countries
The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (Dohainstitute.org) carried out a major telephone survey of public opinion in 16 Arab countries between December 23, 2023 and January 5, 2024 on the issue of Israel’s war against Gaza. The following countries were included: Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Egypt Sudan, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the West Bank, and Mauritania. The sample consisted of 8000 respondents. I have carried out numerous surveys with Gallup, the University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and Richard Wirthlin’s, Decision/Making /Information. I have also taught Public Opinion for a number of years. This survey, in my opinion, is well done and adheres to the professional standards of the discipline.
Even prior to the actual field work on this survey, a headline in the New York Times, (December 6, 2023) proclaims: “Gaza war widens gap between Arab rulers and their citizens.” Another headline: “Gaza Conflict: Arab attitudes are hardening against Israel.” (DW.com) The article cites a young award-winning movie director in Jordan who made his disillusionment clear: “I no longer want to speak their language, watch their films, or even follow their celebrities. They are all the same to me. Their hearts are like stones. They see us as less than human.” And The Times of Israel (October 20, 2023) notes: “Israel will likely win the Gaza war on the battlefield. Even so, it has already been defeated in the court of public opinion.”
Let us look at the results of the survey:
· 67% of respondents say Hamas military operation on October 7 was a legitimate resistance operation. Another 19% say it was somewhat flawed but still legitimate; only 5% say it was an illegitimate operation; 3% say it was legitimate but involved heinous criminal acts. The rest did not know.
· 67% say Hamas is completely different from ISIS and the rest say it bears some resemblance to ISIS.
· 69% express solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas; 23% say they are in solidarity with the Palestinians despite opposing Hamas.
· Asked what factors enable Israel to continue its war, 50% blame US military and political support. Some 19% cite the failure of the Arab governments to take decisive measures against Israel.
· 59% say they have become certain that there will be no peace with Israel, with 14% saying there is serious doubt about it. Only 13% think it is still possible.
· 76% of respondents say their view of the U.S. has become more negative and 19% report no change. Additionally, 81% say the U.S. is not serious about establishing a Palestinian state. 82% of respondents consider American media coverage biased in favor of Israel. And 51% see the U.S. as the biggest threat to peace in the region and 26% consider Israel as the second biggest threat.
· 92% of respondents say that Palestine is the cause for all Arabs, not just Palestinians.
· A fundamental change has occurred in respondents’ opinions on a variety of important issues: In Sudan, in 2022, 68% saw Palestine as a cause for all Arabs. Now 91% of respondents agree. In Saudi Arabia, a similar shift occurs from 38% in 2022 to 68% in2023. And in Morocco, the shift goes from 67% to 78% in the same period.
· The majority of respondents from countries that have signed peace agreements with Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, Sudan oppose their countries’ recognition of Israel. Similarly, countries that have agreed with the so-called Abraham accords now oppose normalization with Israel.
· Asked what Arab states can do to stop Israel’s war: 36% say suspending relations with Israel is the most important and 15% as the second most important. 14% agree that delivering aid to Gaza even if Israel is opposed is most important while 16% say it is the second most important. Similarly, 11% see the use of oil as a weapon to pressure Israel and its supporters as the most important and 13% think it is the second most important.
· Concluding Remarks
Ironically, as I look at the range of opinion in the various Arab countries, I immediately think of my late mother, a very smart lady who was not educated. She would listen to daily newscasts from various radio stations. She was very well informed and I would not hesitate to put her up against any of my Political Science colleagues who had PhDs from Ivy League institutions. She could teach them a thing or two.
So, I am not surprised at the results of this survey. My mother, like all Palestinian mothers, would express similar opinions. She heaped and damnation on the British on a daily basis for what they did in Palestine. She then added the Americans as well. She kept praying and hoping that God would smite all Arab leaders. Judging by the results of this survey I would venture to say that most Arab mothers feel the same way especially as they watch Palestinian women in Gaza bury their children, after digging them up from under the rubble.
The autocrats who run the various Arab countries have lots of resources at their disposal to brainwash their people. But they are failing, ironically for no fault of their own. The behavior of Israel and America in the region is so horrible and so egregious that brainwashing will no longer work. Not long ago (2010-2012), the Arab Spring erupted and people were chanting: “The People want to bring down the regime.” The Arab street is alive and well. This is why the Egyptian authorities, and the rest of the Arab governments, in addition to the various Western governments, simply cannot let their guard down. The genocide has exposed lots of things and the world will no longer be the same. A new generation of well-informed young people will show us the way. History moves on and we shall see what it does.